Basin-wide productivity and livelihood analysis of flood-based agricultural systems in African drylands: A case study in the Fogera floodplain

Flood-based Agricultural Systems (FAS), which rely on temporary floods, provide livelihoods for nearly 50 million smallholder farmers across water-stressed African basins. This paper analyses the impact of externally driven agricultural production and productivity improvement interventions in FAS, taking Ethiopian Fogera floodplain as a case study. Ostroms’ Governing Commons Principles were used analytical framework. Field data was gathered through focus group discussions interviews with 266 pastoralists, 10 local administration staff, while AquaCrop model to simulate maize yield under varied floodwater management farming practices. The replaced vital teff food crops high-return upstream rice cultivation. It has characteristics similar other Africa: 1) inadequate integration water practices; 2) narrow short-term economic gains insufficient attention long-term sustainability environmental issues; 3) lack detailed ex-ante analysis basin-wide consequences – it failed prioritize needs downstream vegetable producers pastoralists using shallow wells. intervention missed several low-cost opportunities, including establishment rules protect rights; construction gabion-strengthened on-farm structures efficiently distribute floods or raised brick-walls reinforce wells; implementation measures improved soil fertility weed management. study establishes that these opportunities could have enhanced by doubling 6 tons/ha; increased harvests one-third, 3 5 tons/ha respectively; mitigated 25% loss 40% reduction grazing land. These also produced benefits, reduced moisture depletion. Lessons from making cost-effective considering livelihood impacts are relevant FAS globally.